‘Economic emergency’ an interview/discussion with the new Governor of the Central Bank – Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Secretary to the Sri Lanka Treasury, Mr. K. M. M. Siriwardana, Vice Chairman of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, Mr. Duminda Hulangamuwa, and Prof. Hema Thilakasisri, broadcast on Rupavahini on Friday (8.4.22) night, was probably one of the most instructive discussions heard with regard to the current Sri Lankan economic crisis. This discussion should be recast on all the channels a number of times, so that everyone gets an opportunity to listen to it. Without pointing fingers, and political hyperbole, one gets an explanation as to how we have arrived at this juncture, and the seriousness of the economic calamity that is facing us, as well an inkling of how to get out of it.
In a nutshell, we do not have enough dollars to honour the loans that we have taken, nor do we have enough dollars for our future essential purchases. Therefore, we need to urgently restructure our debt, so that these loans can be paid over a longer period of time; and we need to create a situation where we are able to raise further loans and revenue, in order to avoid a complete economic collapse. This needs to happen under the auspices of the IMF. To put it differently, these shortages we are having today – be it electricity, gas, diesel, etc…will continue till we can stabilize our economy, and if this stabilization is further delayed there will be a complete collapse of the economy.
For the economy to be stabilized and brought back to ‘keel’ as it were, apart from the Central Bank/Finance Ministry plan, two other things need to happen. Firstly, there needs to be a ‘stable government’ in place, to begin with and continue negotiations under the auspices of the IMF to restructure our debt and organize future loans, etc. Secondly, and almost immediately, there needs to be social stability, in order to create an environment which is conducive for ‘dollars’ to come into the country. This is further supported by the news item – ‘Social turmoil Lanka’s biggest risk, ex-World Bank official ‘, in the Sunday Island edition of 10.4.22 by the former chief economist of the South Asia regions at the World Bank, Shanta Devarajan.
Unfortunately, at this juncture we have neither political nor social stability. There is little doubt that at this moment, we as a nation are disillusioned with the present presidency/government. Hundreds upon thousands are on the road today, in protest against the current government’s inability to provide what are considered basic amenities in the modern world – be it electricity, gas, petrol, diesel, etc.
The entire Opposition seems to be of a single mind, hell bent on trying to oust the current government, whatever the consequences to the country. They are asking /encouraging/campaigning for the people to step on to the road ‘to force’ the current President to resign and the Rajapaksas et al to go home.
However, there are several critical aspects in this equation, that the Opposition members (and some civil groups) are blatantly ignoring or to give the benefit of the doubt, have not considered this.
Firstly, the people are not only asking for the President and the Rajapaksa clan to go home; they are also asking the entire 225 MPs to go home as well. A very convincing case of selective blindness and deafness among the members of the Opposition.
Secondly, if all the members and the President go home, who is there to govern the country? There is a misunderstanding among the members of the Opposition that the people are asking them to rule! Please make no mistake, no one is asking for the SJB or the JVP to take over the government.
Thirdly, a new President and a new government will not change the underlying economic crisis and the impending economic disaster.
Fourthly, as discussed at the ‘Economic emergency’, this political stability and social stability needs to happen NOW. As far as approaching the IMF, etc…we are already LATE. We do not have the time to rehash a constitution and/or organize elections.
The Island
editorial of April 04, ‘Help others save us’, in its usual no-nonsense style, has demonstrated, yet again the urgent need for an interim government. Hats off to Minister Ali Sabry, who said he has taken this job as Finance Minister because there was no one else, and if there is someone else who can do a better job to please take over. The Opposition needs to show that they understand the ground reality. Form an ‘interim government’ across all parties, so that the first step (political stability) that is needed to solve this crisis can be taken.
The next step is social stability. The President and the party leaders – of the ‘interim government’- need to address the people. Assure them that they are heard, and that once this crisis is sorted out or while it is being sorted out, if that is possible, there will be a serious, genuine discussion with them. The necessary changes to the Constitution, electoral system, requirements of future elected members, running of the Parliament, an independent audit to assess members’ finances, etc…will be established, and that you– all 225- will step down allowing the people to decide how their /our country is to be governed.
Therefore, till that time comes –i.e. till we are out of this crisis – advise the public, to please go home and allow the necessary social stability to take place in order for us to come out of this crisis. This should be backed by all civil societies/organisations as well, if they genuinely care about the welfare of this country and its people.
It is imperative for us to realise that all of us are together in this crisis –not just you or I.
Dr. SUMEDHA S. AMARASEKARA
(the island)